中国贸易收支的形成机理及其主要影响因素研究:Determinants of China’s Trade Balanc

本书提出了一个综合的多渠道分析框架探讨中国贸易收支波动的形成机理，识别和指出影响中国贸易收支的关键影响因素。本研究为客观评估中国贸易收支余额未来的可能走势提供了理论依据，同时为如何缓解我国的贸易失衡事实提供政策启示。从一个多维视角出发，构建了一个综合的多渠道分析框架探讨中国贸易收支的形成机理，从供给渠道、需求渠道和相对价格渠道，对影响中国贸易收支的主要经济因素进行测度。

顾欣，女，汉族，1982年10月出生，江苏南通人。2013年毕业于澳大利亚詹姆斯·库克大学，获经济学博士学位。现为东南大学经济管理学院副教授，对贸易收支领域有长期的关注和研究，先后主持和参与了国家、省部级等多项科研教改项目，发表论文多篇。

TABLE OF CONTENT
Abtract	i
Table of contents	iv
CHAPTER 1    INTRODUCTION	1
1.1    Introduction	..........	1
1.2	    Motivations for this study	3
1.3	    Research questions and objectives	4
1.4    Methodology....................................................................................................4
1.5    	Significance of the research	5
1.6	    Organisation of the thesis	6
Chapter 2	    China’s Trade Performances and Trade Reforms	8
2.1    Introduction.....................................................................................................8
2.2	    China’s trade balance position	8
2.3    	China’s foreign trade	9
2.4	    Reform of China’s trade regime	18
2.5	    Structural changes and external dependence	23
2.6    Summary........................................................................................................27
Chapter 3	    Review of the Literature	29
3.1    Introduction...................................................................................................29
3.2	    Theoretical basis for determinants of trade balance	31
3.2.1	    Productivity and trade balance	32
3.2.2	    Income and trade balance	34
3.2.3	    Exchange rate, relative price effects and the balance of trade	35
3.2.4	    Monetary view of trade balance	38
3.3	    Empirical research	44
3.3.1    	Country-specific studies	44
3.3.2	    Cross-country studies	48
3.4    	Existing studies on the determinants of China’s trade balance	55
3.4.1	    Supply-side explanations	55
3.4.2	    Relative price effect:  the exchange rate	56
3.4.3	    Demand-side considerations	58
3.5    Summary........................................................................................................59
Chapter 4    	Research Methodology	61
4.1    Research framework	61
4.2    Econometric modelling	64
4.2.1	    The standard model of trade balance	64
4.2.2	    An extension of the standard model	66
4.2.3    Variable construction and data acquisition	68
4.3    	Estimation strategies	69
4.4    Summary........................................................................................................76
Chapter 5	    Determinants of China’s Trade Balance—
a Multifaceted Perspective	77
5.1	Economic factors	77
5.1.1	    A supply-side explanation	77
5.1.2	    Relative price effects	84
5.1.3	    Demand-side considerations: consumption constraints	86
5.2    	Socio-cultural factors	91
5.2.1    Social ideology, social structure and labour supply	92
5.2.2    	Social networks and FDI inflows	93
5.2.3    	Demographic structure, social welfare system and saving
        behaviour  	....................................................................................95
5.2.4	    “Shanzhai” products crowd out imports	97
5.3	    Institutional factors	98
5.3.1    	Segmented labour markets	98
5.3.2	    Strong incentives of local officials to attract inward FDI	98
5.3.3	    Weak labour trade unions	99
5.4    Conclusion.....................................................................................................99
Chapter 6      Effects of Economic Determinants on China’s Trade Balance—an Aggregate Analysis	101
6.1    	Model specification and methodological procedures	101
6.2	    Variable construction and data	104
6.3    Empirical results	...........................................................................................105
6.4	    Discussion and conclusion	110
Chapter 7      Effects of Economic Determinants on China’s Trade Balance—a Disaggregate Analysis	112
7.1	    Decomposing China’s trade balance	112
7.1.1    The problem..................................................................................114
7.1.2	    Data and adjustment methods	114
7.1.3    Adjusted trade balance	118
7.2	    Model specification	121
7.3    Results.........................................................................................................122
7.4	    Discussion and conclusion	127
Chapter 8    CONCLUSIONS	129
8.1    	Findings and conclusions	129
8.2    	Significance and contributions	134
8.3    Implications.................................................................................................136
8.4	    Limitations and future research	138
BIBLIOGRAPHY	140